Mod-Karlthegreat at 05:37, 8 February 2009

2009-02-08T05:37:52Z

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{{forum_message|
| from = HT-Tjecken
| to = busawreck
| msgid = 12321927.285
| prevmsgid = 12321927.30
| datetime = 9.1.2009 13:25
| keywords = (Probability), (Match engine)
| text =
''@all: I think the biggest problem here is that the average user doesn't know much about how probabilities work. That combined with how we emotionally interpret and subjectively remember events causes a huge bias which leads to people feeling the random to be bigger than it is.''
''Yes, we have (as you also say in another post) a kind of educational problem and not really a problem with random.''
----

Many users don't fully understand how the basics of the match engine works, and then it's of course naturally that they blame "random" when they can't understand a sensational result. It's a very human reaction. And after a while it's easy to forget (or not see) all the normal results, but only see the sensational ones- which adds more fuel...

As I mentioned in another post before the holidays we've had a need to make a match analysis tool of some kind, just because so many users fail to understand why they lost/won certain matches - and it's of course not their fault that they don't understand. Luck (or variance) will not cease to exist, but with a better educational (analysis) tool we would at least make people understand what happened (and perhaps what they could've done to avoid it). And naturally, it shouldn't be a tool for mathematical nerds either. :)}}{{forum_message|
| from = HT-Tjecken
| to = Catalyst2950
| msgid = 12321927.287
| prevmsgid = 12321927.285
| datetime = 9.1.2009 14:00
| keywords = (Probability), (Match engine)
| text =
''No, you need to fix the issue of TC, and you need to fix the mess that will happen because you thought subs would be neat to have.''
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TS issue is also a reason for the random myth yes, and also needs to be fixed completely. For the subs however, I think this analysis tool also could include the detailed info needed for sub impact.}}{{forum_message|
| from = HT-Tjecken
| to = ivo_stoyanov
| msgid = 12321927.291
| prevmsgid = 12321927.289
| datetime = 9.1.2009 14:07
| keywords = (Probability), (Match engine)
| text =
''Also, have you done some work on it in the past season or two? I mean have you amended it in any way after fixing the extremes, which you announced a few months ago?''
----
No, not more than fixing the extremes yet. We had hoped to have the rest fixed for next season, but it looks like it will need some more time.
}}

[[Category:HTs on Global|Probability]]

HTs on Global/Probability - Revision history

Mod-Karlthegreat at 05:37, 8 February 2009