HTs on Global/Probability

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Keywords: (Probability), (Match engine)

By: HT-Tjecken 12321927.285 as reply to 12321927.30
To: busawreck 9.1.2009 13:25
@all: I think the biggest problem here is that the average user doesn't know much about how probabilities work. That combined with how we emotionally interpret and subjectively remember events causes a huge bias which leads to people feeling the random to be bigger than it is.

Yes, we have (as you also say in another post) a kind of educational problem and not really a problem with random.


Many users don't fully understand how the basics of the match engine works, and then it's of course naturally that they blame "random" when they can't understand a sensational result. It's a very human reaction. And after a while it's easy to forget (or not see) all the normal results, but only see the sensational ones- which adds more fuel...

As I mentioned in another post before the holidays we've had a need to make a match analysis tool of some kind, just because so many users fail to understand why they lost/won certain matches - and it's of course not their fault that they don't understand. Luck (or variance) will not cease to exist, but with a better educational (analysis) tool we would at least make people understand what happened (and perhaps what they could've done to avoid it). And naturally, it shouldn't be a tool for mathematical nerds either. :)

Keywords: (Probability), (Match engine)

By: HT-Tjecken 12321927.287 as reply to 12321927.285
To: Catalyst2950 9.1.2009 14:00
No, you need to fix the issue of TC, and you need to fix the mess that will happen because you thought subs would be neat to have.

TS issue is also a reason for the random myth yes, and also needs to be fixed completely. For the subs however, I think this analysis tool also could include the detailed info needed for sub impact.

Keywords: (Probability), (Match engine)

By: HT-Tjecken 12321927.291 as reply to 12321927.289
To: ivo_stoyanov 9.1.2009 14:07
Also, have you done some work on it in the past season or two? I mean have you amended it in any way after fixing the extremes, which you announced a few months ago?

No, not more than fixing the extremes yet. We had hoped to have the rest fixed for next season, but it looks like it will need some more time.