HTs on Global/Random

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Keywords: (random), (match engine)

By: HT-Bjorn 2003552.20 as reply to 2003552.1
To: Everyone 07-11-2004 at 15:57
Don't blame the engine for your lack of understanding of it. "Luck" or "back luck" tend to be the knee-jerk reaction to the unpleasant fact that someone has not yet fully mastered all aspects of the game. Blaming losses on "bad luck" will not help you reach the top series - in fact it will prevent you from refining your tactic, will prevent you from learning the game engine.

Random is part of any game (including real-life football as well as Hattrick) or indeed any aspect of life in a complex world. However, it matters every little for long term results, and it even matters very little for the outcome of all but a very small number of matches.

Keywords: (random), (match engine)

By: HT-Bjorn 2003552.27 as reply to 2003552.21
To: myszka-ns 07-11-2004 at 16:23
But the lottery is bigger and bigger :(.

No it is not. You are mistaken. Random is not more important, it is less important.

In last seasones was lottery but it was very little. In this season lottery rule Hattrick :(.

Not true. More likely, it is your understanding of the game that has become obsolete. Learn from your mistakes and the mistakes of others, instead of just saying that it is luck, just because you don't understand why a certain team lost.

Established truths slowly change as the best managers adjust their tactics over time. The longer you cling to old "truths" and treat all deviations from those obsolete "truths" as "random", then the more strange and hostile and "unlucky" your life in the HT world will seem.

Keywords: (random), (match engine)

By: HT-Bjorn 2003552.32 as reply to 2003552.26
To: bbUnica 07-11-2004 at 16:28
The real life random is so rare that I haven'r seen a game in which the worst team won against the better team.

That is because IRL you fully trust your eyes and what you see on the field, and treat all side statistics as secondary. In Hattrick many people do the opposite: They treat the match report (which is what actually happened) as secondary and think that the "truth" about which team was the best lies in the side statistcis (like team and player ratings).

The game engine similates a match. Step by step it advances through the match and the most important events are spat out as the match report.

The team ratings specify (more objectively than IRL) what the inparameters were. But, like in your Real Madrid example, inparameters doesn't tell the whole story.

Keywords: (random), (match engine)

By: HT-Bjorn 2003552.35 as reply to 2003552.28
To: bi_ts 07-11-2004 at 16:35
So we are all stupid morons....

No, I didn't say that.

I said that none of us (me included) fully grasp the complexity of such a complicated thing as the game engine (or the IRL "game engine"). There is always more to learn. We are all ignorants and we are all knowledgeable. None of us know everything and none know nothing.

However, to stop learning half-way and start saying that "random is increasing" is to act very foolishly. Random has not increased - in fact it has been made less important in HT 6.6. So, if you perceive the HT-world as less comprehensive, it is more likely to be because your relative understanding of the game engine has fallen behind other managers. This may sound like a harsh statement, but the choice is yours.

Keywords: (random), (match engine)

By: HT-Bjorn 2002523.47 as reply to 2002523.1
To: HG-bard 07-11-2004 at 15:46
If random matters so much - how come some of the best teams tend to win the cup and be in the top series, season after season, over and over again?

The fact that you cannot predict the outcome doesn't mean it is random. It means that it is a complex game that, just like real-life football, is not easily boiled down to some simple formula and prediction-models. As you know, people usually bet money on real-life football results, and knowledgeable betters do lose IRL too.

I'm sure that the users here could give hundreds of examples of matches that went "the wrong way".

"Wrong way" meaning it didn't go as most people predicted? How many people expected the Greeks to win the Euro 2004? You can be lucky in a single match, but you cannot win a tournament on pure luck. The same is true in Hattrick.

Keywords: (random), (match engine), (cup)

By: HT-Bjorn 2002523.51 as reply to 2002523.49
To: sjeetje 07-11-2004 at 16:04
Is it true that the random element in the cup is higher than in league-matches?

No, it is completely untrue. I hadn't heard that rumour, but then, there are always so many bizarre rumours going around that I am glad I don't have to hear most of them,

If the random element had been higher in the cup, then of course the rules had stated so.

Keywords: (random), (match engine), (cup)

By: HT-Bjorn 2002523.53 as reply to 2002523.50
To: bbUnica 07-11-2004 at 16:16
So, do you thing Greeks won Euro 2004 by being a weak team?

No, my point is the exact opposite: The Greeks won because they were a BETTER team. However, BEFORE the matches were played, few people realized that they were. I was using them as an example of how difficult it is to PREDICT a result. After the match, it is all very easy - all you have to do is to take a look at the match report.

By everybody's standards, the "game engine" of Euro 2004 could never had labeled Greece as "weak".

In fact, it is quite possible to label the separate positions in a winning team as inferior (player by player, or sector by sector) and yet say that the result was fair, if the winner was the one using a superior tactic for that particular match. That is what often happens in HT as well: One team with lower overall ratings use a smart tactic (smart against that particular opponent) and win. Afte rthe match some will just look at the ratings and then whine and say that it was unfair, when in fact it was perfectly fair becuase the winner outsmarted the loser with his tactic or some other subtle trick (for instance using a certain combination of specialist).

Remember: The ratings do not show everything that mattered in thematch. The match report does. Read it, and then read it again, and finally read between the lines of the match report. Don't treat the match report as the "wrong" or "dumb" data and the ratings as The Holy Absolute Truth as some does. Quite often it can be the other way around.